Aftermath! What happened to Urban Housing prices after the housing bubble crashed?

This post is about housing prices by urban areas using the Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA) data, starting from the bust in Q1 2009. This is a very mixed story when looking at the data by urban area with many places increasing in price or flat with just a few big gainers. There are still many housing price losers, about 30 percent. Below is a graph of Case Shiller composite indices for orientation. The is a great interactive graph here. The FHFA data is similar but looks at all home sales mortgage transactions and publishes more data by urban area compared to other indexes.

CSDec2012

In the United States, the national housing bust ended in the first quarter of 2009, while the bubble peaked in Q2 2006. From Q1 2009 the priced flattened out until the first quarter of 2012. Recently there has been a national housing price re-bound (you can see that in my next post). About 30 percent of cities in this dataset have had declines in housing prices from Q1 2009 to Q4 2013. Only one city declined by more than 11 percent. Some of the places hardest hit, like Las Vegas metro area, have done well from the bust while places like Tucson, hit in the bust, continued their fall.  Many decreasing cities did not have the price collapse other cities did during the bust and just continued down for a longer period of time (see table below).

The largest price increase was almost 40 percent and 10 cities increased more than 25 percent. This included DC, my home town, that did not have a huge bubble or lots of foreclosures. For its class of city and geographic location, DC has done very well due in part to stimulus spending. Gridlock and government shutdown’s have impaired prices in the last few years. The rest of the east cost has not faired as well except for Boston which as increased 10 percent. More recent data, starting from 1Q 2012, have shown increases across the board in almost all metro areas. A few metro areas that had large bubbles are near their price peaks of 2006, lead by Oakland along with other California metro areas, and also Huston. It remains to be seen if the fundamentals support these prices.

Housing_Prices_2009_2013

Note the data is by agglomerations of counties into metro areas. There are two kinds of metro areas the FHFA uses: Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) and Metropolitan Divisions, which compared to CBSA’s, tend to be used for larger urban areas but broken up into more counties than CBSA’s of the same cities. For more information look at there website.

This table is sorted by largest gainers from the housing bust to Q4 2013. Bottom is Q2 2006 to Q1 2009. Bubble is Q1 2003 to Q2 2006.

Names of Metro Areas
frombust bottom bubble
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA Metro Division 0.3987 −0.4385 0.4261
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area 0.3725 −0.3119 0.3824
Stockton-Lodi, CA Metro Area 0.3416 −0.5767 0.6417
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area 0.3097 −0.4944 0.8774
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro Area 0.2792 0.0708 0.1573
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area 0.2781 −0.3414 0.4749
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI Metro Division 0.2712 −0.3456 0.0332
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Metro Division 0.2591 −0.1009 0.2416
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Division 0.2564 −0.2705 0.6707
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL Metro Division 0.2531 −0.4360 0.8252
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Metro Area 0.2437 −0.0396 0.0982
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Metro Division 0.2382 −0.3641 0.8843
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL Metro Area 0.2287 −0.5311 0.8354
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA Metro Division 0.2175 −0.2878 0.6642
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Metro Area 0.2073 −0.3591 0.6016
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metro Area 0.2070 −0.3961 0.8367
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA Metro Area 0.2032 −0.4128 0.5448
Austin-Round Rock, TX Metro Area 0.2027 0.1220 0.1787
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Metro Division 0.1938 −0.4123 0.8321
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL Metro Area 0.1875 −0.4586 0.7709
Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI Metro Division 0.1806 −0.3635 −0.0110
Bakersfield, CA Metro Area 0.1752 −0.4639 0.9792
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL Metro Division 0.1668 −0.4182 0.8134
Urban Honolulu, HI Metro Area 0.1631 0.0068 0.7594
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Metro Division 0.1598 0.0345 0.1044
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY Metro Area 0.1473 0.0653 0.1595
Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area 0.1398 0.0328 0.1437
New Orleans-Metairie, LA Metro Area 0.1383 −0.0968 0.3525
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI Metro Area 0.1300 −0.1648 0.0581
Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD Metro Division 0.1255 −0.2439 0.6545
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Division 0.1202 0.0238 0.1006
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN Metro Area 0.1158 0.0010 0.2713
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Metro Area 0.1058 −0.4981 0.8283
Boston, MA Metro Division 0.1025 −0.1334 0.1811
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN Metro Area 0.0997 −0.0559 0.0847
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA Metro Division 0.0985 −0.1015 0.1607
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area 0.0935 0.0856 0.2287
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metro Area 0.0912 −0.1406 0.1227
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA Metro Area 0.0808 −0.0527 0.1219
Colorado Springs, CO Metro Area 0.0791 −0.0788 0.1865
Fresno, CA Metro Area 0.0781 −0.4103 0.7957
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area 0.0746 −0.1936 0.1975
Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metro Area 0.0731 −0.1065 0.1393
Salt Lake City, UT Metro Area 0.0713 0.0056 0.4067
Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area 0.0668 0.0437 0.1943
Columbus, OH Metro Area 0.0633 −0.0505 0.1060
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Metro Area 0.0586 −0.0195 0.1383
Gary, IN Metro Division 0.0540 −0.0766 0.1717
Baton Rouge, LA Metro Area 0.0507 0.0636 0.2703
Akron, OH Metro Area 0.0463 −0.1147 0.0614
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Metro Area 0.0450 −0.0055 0.1974
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC Metro Area 0.0403 0.0444 0.1376
Raleigh, NC Metro Area 0.0398 0.0445 0.1716
Cleveland-Elyria, OH Metro Area 0.0326 −0.1558 0.0656
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metro Area 0.0324 −0.0600 0.5275
Tulsa, OK Metro Area 0.0318 0.0597 0.1130
El Paso, TX Metro Area 0.0295 −0.0075 0.3595
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area 0.0283 −0.3205 0.7192
Rochester, NY Metro Area 0.0276 0.0359 0.1306
Syracuse, NY Metro Area 0.0264 0.0137 0.2087
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area 0.0260 0.0567 0.1741
Birmingham-Hoover, AL Metro Area 0.0174 −0.0346 0.2310
Kansas City, MO-KS Metro Area 0.0144 −0.0531 0.1216
Philadelphia, PA Metro Division 0.0139 −0.0028 0.5324
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Metro Division 0.0138 −0.0524 0.4879
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY Metro Area 0.0097 −0.0154 0.4682
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area 0.0069 −0.0647 0.1129
Dayton, OH Metro Area 0.0031 −0.0915 0.1052
Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA Metro Division 0.0027 −0.0546 0.3731
St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area −0.0015 −0.0733 0.2158
Knoxville, TN Metro Area −0.0030 0.0393 0.2750
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metro Area −0.0044 −0.1163 0.6295
Wichita, KS Metro Area −0.0195 0.0522 0.1116
Boise City, ID Metro Area −0.0259 −0.1481 0.5767
Greensboro-High Point, NC Metro Area −0.0350 0.0147 0.1140
Tacoma-Lakewood, WA Metro Division −0.0355 −0.1643 0.5421
Worcester, MA-CT Metro Area −0.0360 −0.1642 0.2042
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Metro Area −0.0385 −0.0538 0.2270
Richmond, VA Metro Area −0.0401 −0.0551 0.4442
Charleston-North Charleston, SC Metro Area −0.0411 −0.0755 0.4714
Jacksonville, FL Metro Area −0.0429 −0.2385 0.5976
Albuquerque, NM Metro Area −0.0430 −0.0452 0.4502
Winston-Salem, NC Metro Area −0.0445 0.0285 0.1090
Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY Metro Division −0.0456 −0.1096 0.3949
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT Metro Area −0.0486 −0.1526 0.3383
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area −0.0518 −0.3243 0.7825
Columbia, SC Metro Area −0.0551 0.0051 0.2124
Newark, NJ-PA Metro Division −0.0580 −0.1119 0.4197
Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ Metro Division −0.0583 −0.0885 0.4583
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ Metro Division −0.0600 −0.0921 0.4447
Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL Metro Division −0.0611 −0.1482 0.3007
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Metro Area −0.0663 −0.0526 0.2887
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI Metro Division −0.0835 −0.1416 0.2114
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA Metro Area −0.0853 −0.1461 0.3444
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ Metro Area −0.0909 −0.0863 0.4521
New Haven-Milford, CT Metro Area −0.0963 −0.0823 0.3540
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Metro Area −0.0978 −0.0783 0.6847
Tucson, AZ Metro Area −0.1000 −0.2059 0.6628
Camden, NJ Metro Division −0.1066 −0.1144 0.4912
Elgin, IL Metro Division −0.1829 −0.1304 0.2612

About Matthew Mulbrandon

I really like maps, as I am a geographer, and with the help of my more artistic partner I make cool maps. My focus in work and education has been centred on urban problems particularly housing and transportation. I have built and am working on several agent-based housing models. I am also interested in developing innovative ways to combat urban congestion using buses and electric kick scooters. Also it has led me to more theoretical pursuits such as how we determine if a model or methodology is sound (epistemology). How individuals relate to their social and built environment and their resulting interactions (social theory). Cities and really all our institutions are made of people with all their issues, virtues, and dreams and cannot be discounted when examining policy or predicting behaviours.

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